India's banking system is grappling with a persistent liquidity surplus exceeding Rs 5 trillion, driven by significant government spending and bond redemptions, leading market participants to anticipate the Reserve Bank of India will step up Variable Rate Reserve Repo operations to manage the excess funds.
In a first, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced that it will conduct daily variable rate repo (VRR) auctions on all working days in Mumbai, until further notice. The daily auctions, aimed at easing the current liquidity tightness in the banking system, will begin on Friday, with a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore.
India's banking system liquidity has fallen into a deficit for the first time in nearly three months, prompting the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to inject 1.41 trillion through a seven-day variable rate repo (VRR) auction to ease the temporary tightness.
The Indian banking system's net liquidity surplus has reached a four-year high of Rs 4.57 trillion, driven by maturing government securities, with further maturities expected to push the surplus to around 5 trillion.
The net liquidity surplus in the banking system fell to Rs 16,875 crore on Thursday the latest data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed, lowest since 22 January.
"It is quite possible that the rates will remain low in the near to medium term, but that will depend on how conditions evolve," said RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Monday did a four-day variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auction to reduce liquidity in the banking system as the overnight money market rates fell below the repo rate, said market participants. The repo rate is 6.50 per cent. Banks parked Rs 18,750 crore at the auction against a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore at a weighted average rate of 6.49 per cent.
Banks are depending more heavily on the market for certificates of deposit (CDs), whose worth climbed to a record Rs 5.75 trillion in the fortnight to January 15, owing to deposit tightness in the system.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday announced a set of liquidity measures through open market operations (OMOs), dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps, and long-term variable rate repo (VRR) operations, in a bid to infuse liquidity into the banking system.
Markets will look for clear guidance on how the MPC interprets the uncertainty and what it implies for the future course of monetary policy, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday announced a fresh round of liquidity measures through open-market operations (OMOs) and a foreign exchange buy-sell swap, under which it will inject close to Rs 3 trillion into the banking system. The central bank said it would purchase Government of India securities worth Rs 2 trillion through OMOs, spread across four tranches of Rs 50,000 crore each to be conducted on December 29, January 5, January 12 and January 22.
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
The forthcoming Budget could think of maintaining public capital expenditure at 3 per cent so that domestic resources are available for private investments, points out N R Bhanumurthy.
'The RBI's MPC will maintain the current policy rates (6.50%) at the policy meeting, given ongoing inflationary pressures.'
Funds raised by banks through certificates of deposit in December clocked the highest in the financial year 2023-24 as liquidity remained tight in the system with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) infusing Rs 2.01 trillion on Monday, the highest in the current financial year. The liquidity deficit in the banking system widened to more than Rs 2 trillion on Monday on the back of advance tax outflows, market participants said. Around Rs 4 trillion worth of outflows are expected because of advanced tax and goods and services tax (GST) payments in December.
'If it doesn't, it will continue with measures to infuse liquidity, signalling a new cycle,' predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
CRR remains unchanged at 4%; first repo rate cut since May 2013.
'The statistical confidence bands of the fan charts of the forecasts will provide a better sense of the potential variability of outcomes.'
Amid liquidity tightness in the banking system, certificate of deposit (CD) rates topped 8 per cent for some smaller banks, with rates remaining on the higher side for derivatives loss-hit IndusInd Bank. On Thursday, CSB Bank raised Rs 100 crore via one-year CDs at 8.5 per cent, while Utkarsh Small Finance Bank issued three-month CDs at 8.05 per cent to raise Rs 50 crore.
Escalating trade tensions amid a tariff war after Donald Trump took over as President of the United States (US) could adversely impact global growth and fuel inflation, an article on the "State of the Economy" in the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) monthly bulletin said.
Since Sanjay Malhotra took office as governor in December, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has adopted a more accommodative stance, which bodes well for banking and the economy as they navigate a growth slowdown, according to analysts.
Reserve Bank on Friday decided to cut Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by a huge 1 per cent, which will unlock Rs 2.5 lakh crore liquidity to the banking system for lending to productive sectors of the economy. With the reduction in four equal tranches ending November 29, 2025, the CRR would come down to 3 per cent.
The liquidity in the banking system could ease in the coming week due to an increase in government spending - a development that would be the key for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to decide whether to extend the incremental cash reserve ratio (I-CRR) mandate for banks. There are signs of improvement in the liquidity scenario as banks parked Rs 25, 833 crore with the RBI on Thursday. Market participants expect liquidity to gradually improve by the end of the month or during the first week of September, aided by government spending.
The liquidity will move into deficit after advance tax payments and GST outflows. It will rebound in October because of government spending.
Probably 35 bps. There could be even an encore in February 2023 to take the policy rate to 6.5% before the financial year ends, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Short-term government bonds fell behind longer-dated securities in demand this month so far due to a liquidity crunch in the banking system and expectations of a delay in a rate cut, said market participants. Investors have favoured longer-tenure government bonds, or g-secs, with insurance companies and pension funds leading the charge by stocking up on those with maturities of 30 years and more. Preference for longer-term securities was strengthened by the conclusion of the borrowing programme, which compelled institutional investors to fulfil their requirements in the secondary market.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) conducted two overnight variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auctions on Tuesday, marking the first instance of such action in a single day. The move aimed to reduce liquidity from the banking system, which has been largely in deficit mode for the past four months. Market participants noted that the central bank held the second VRRR auction due to its awareness of funds being released to banks during the day.
The banking system's liquidity slipped into deficit for the first time in the current financial year (2023-24) due to the imposition of the Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio (I-CRR) for banks and outflows from goods and services tax (GST) payments, according to dealers. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows it injected Rs 23,644 crore on August 21. The last time liquidity was in deficit was on March 27, when the RBI injected Rs 45,575 crore.
The liquidity in the banking system moved into surplus almost after three months as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) absorbed over Rs 40,000 crore from the market on Monday, predominantly on the back of increased government spending. However, this situation may be short-lived given the higher demand for funds to pay taxes and year-end targets, treasury executives said. Meanwhile, two variable reverse repo rate (VRRR) auctions held on Tuesday received weak response.
In its scheme of things, tackling inflation now comes ahead of ensuring growth in the world's sixth largest economy, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The Reserve Bank on Monday reduced the marginal standing facility (MSF) rate, at which banks borrow from it, to 9 per cent from 9.5 per cent to improve liquidity in the system.
The Reserve Bank may be hitting the end of its tolerance for high inflation and will most likely hike interest rates in the first half of 2022, analysts said on Friday. The central bank will also start rolling back its accommodative policies which have led to easy liquidity conditions, they said. The view from analysts came even as inflation cooled down to 5.6 per cent for July, after two months of breaching the upper end of the RBI's tolerance band of 6 per cent.
Observing that there is liquidity overhand of Rs 13 lakh crore in the system, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday that the exceptional measures undertaken during pandemic will be dealt in sync with macroeconomic developments to preserve financial stability. Since the onset of the pandemic, the Reserve Bank has maintained ample surplus liquidity to support a speedy and durable economic recovery, he said while announcing the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. The level of surplus liquidity in the banking system increased further during September 2021, with absorption under fixed rate reverse repo, variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) of 14 days and fine-tuning operations under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) averaging Rs 9 lakh crore per day as against Rs 7 lakh crore during June to August 2021, he said.
Banks submitted bids amounting to Rs 4.75 trillion, around 2.5 times of the notified amount of Rs 1.75 trillion, at the Variable Rate Reverse Repo (VRR) auction conducted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on December 22, a day after the liquidity deficit in the banking system widened to Rs 2.5 trillion. In the most recent VRR auction held by the RBI on December 15, bids totaling 2.7 times the notified amount were received. Banks secured Rs 1 trillion at a weighted average rate of 6.63 per cent.
For now, the concerns over bad loans have taken a back seat; a bigger challenge for the banking community is credit growth, explains Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The American brokerage firm said it expects the rate cut to happen only in December if the monsoons normalise to cool down inflation or early 2015 in case prices rise prolongs.
Describing the recent two consecutive spikes in retail inflation beyond the 6 per cent as a 'transitory hump', a Wall Street brokerage on Monday said it expects the RBI to overlook it and unanimously stick to the dovish stance at the forthcoming policy review, even though a further upward revision of its already-revised inflation target is more likely. The Reserve Bank-led monetary policy panel is scheduled to announce the third monetary policy review on August 6, amidst the continuing spike in retail inflation that has breached the 6 per cent upper tolerance level for the past two consecutive months.
The balance sheet of the Reserve Bank plays a critical role in the functioning of the country's economy.
Concerned over inflationary pressures in the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is bringing down surplus liquidity in the system rapidly. It has fallen to pre-Covid levels and almost 2 per cent of banks' net demand and time liabilities (NDTL). NDTL shows the difference between the sum of demand and time liabilities (deposits) of a bank (with the public or the other bank) and the deposits in the form of assets held by the other bank.
